When will discovery 1000 exoplanets?

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When will discovery 1000 exoplanets?

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Total Votes : 13

When will discovery 1000 exoplanets?

Post by Borislav on 19th November 2010, 11:07 am

To discovery the first 500 extrasolar planets took 15 years (1995-2010), how many years will need for discovery the next 500 extrasolar planets?

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Re: When will discovery 1000 exoplanets?

Post by Borislav on 19th November 2010, 11:17 am

Tried to estimate how many new planets could discovery the most promising projects in the next 2 years (2011-2012):

Corot and Kepler - 200-300
SuperWASP and HATnet - 100-200
Keck, Magellan, HAPRS, SOPHIA - 100-200
Photographic projects - 50

In general, I think that 2013 a very real option. For this to happen to increase the number of discoveries with about 100 in 2010 to about 250. Two years later, we learn Smile

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Re: When will discovery 1000 exoplanets?

Post by Borislav on 19th November 2010, 11:38 am

In European Roadmap for Exoplanets given a prognoz:
http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/index.cfm?fobjectid=47855#


Near-­term Road Markers (~2011-­2017)
a. ~1000 exoplanets around host stars with stellar masses 0.1 – 2 M סּ
b. ~100 multiple systems

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Re: When will discovery 1000 exoplanets?

Post by Sirius_Alpha on 19th November 2010, 11:59 am

I vote 2014, because of (ignore my sloppy labling):

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Re: When will discovery 1000 exoplanets?

Post by marasama on 19th November 2010, 2:20 pm

Nice chart, Sirius.

What about a retraction list chart? Smile

Shoot, guess I'll go for 2016.

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Re: When will discovery 1000 exoplanets?

Post by Roland Borrey on 20th November 2010, 1:10 pm

The volume of planetary candidates that will be intoduced by Kepler over the next 2 years, will make it difficult to have them all validated by the RV method due to the short coming of high quality spectroscopes and the prohibiting cost to mobilize the big telescopes.
If we allow exoplanet discoveries as a statistical analysis, such as 80% of Kepler candidates it could go very fast.( like 2012)
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Re: When will discovery 1000 exoplanets?

Post by ciceron on 20th November 2010, 2:08 pm

If the 1000 mark is about confirmed exoplanets , i'd agree 2013 is a likely date. If we are shooting for candidates , february 2011 will go over the mark , and i would bet even for 2000 candidates by mid 2012.

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Re: When will discovery 1000 exoplanets?

Post by Sirius_Alpha on 30th May 2013, 8:59 pm

If you include the ~30 planets not listed at the EPE as disussed here, plus a few more that have appeared since that EPE forgot to include, as well as the ~50 planets mentioned at this presentation, and the ~15 planets mentioned here, by my count, we're standing at 1,008 extrasolar planets / planet candidates.

Borislav and Ciceron get a cookie Smile

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