Detecting Extra-solar Planets with a Bayesian hybrid MCMC Kepler periodogram

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Detecting Extra-solar Planets with a Bayesian hybrid MCMC Kepler periodogram

Post by Michael Johne on 13th February 2009, 4:01 am

Hi!

http://de.arxiv.org/abs/0902.2014

A Bayesian re-analysis of published radial velocity data sets is providing evidence for additional planetary candidates. The nonlinear model fitting is accomplished with a new hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo (HMCMC) algorithm which incorporates parallel tempering, simulated annealing and genetic crossover operations. Each of these features facilitate the detection of a global minimum in chi^2. By combining all three, the HMCMC greatly increases the probability of realizing this goal. When applied to the Kepler problem it acts as a powerful multi-planet Kepler periodogram for both parameter estimation and model selection. The HMCMC algorithm is embedded in a unique two stage adaptive control system that automates the tuning of the MCMC proposal distributions through an annealing operation.

Bye!
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Re: Detecting Extra-solar Planets with a Bayesian hybrid MCMC Kepler periodogram

Post by Stardust on 13th February 2009, 9:47 am

From the article above:
"...Fig. 4 shows the results of a blind three planet search for two different trials on HD 11964 (87 radial velocity measurements) which we previously demonstrated has 3 planets (Gregory 2007b) with periods of 38, 360, and 1924 d..."

I was reading the EPE and the second planet (with a orbital periodo of 360 days) isnīt listed as orbiting HD 11964. I also search EPE at the nonconfirmed planets link, and this planet isn't listed.

Does someone knows something about this?

Thank you!

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Re: Detecting Extra-solar Planets with a Bayesian hybrid MCMC Kepler periodogram

Post by Sirius_Alpha on 13th February 2009, 10:18 am

There was talk about such a planet a year or so ago, and a recent paper failed to identify any third planetary signal.

Link to the relevant post

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Re: Detecting Extra-solar Planets with a Bayesian hybrid MCMC Kepler periodogram

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